PokeScarcity
Estimate Pokémon Scarcity — Base, Jungle, Fossil Sets 1999–2000
Pokemon card scarcity model with edition, shadow less, pack collation and survivor estimates.
Shadowless applies to Base only. When Shadowless is selected, Jungle & Fossil are disabled.
Production window
Global cumulative cards (Mar 1999)
Global cumulative cards (Mar 2000)
Print split assumptions
WotC (non-JP) share of global (%)
Base share of WotC window (%)
1st Edition share of Base (%)
Attrition (% of cards survived)
Pack collation (defaults by set)
Cards per pack
Holo odds (1 in X packs / rare slots)
Uncommons per pack
Commons per pack (total)
Basic energy per pack (avg)
Category Breakdown
| Category | Unique cards (model) | % of pack | Estimated survivors (category) | Estimated survivors per card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL | — | |||
Derivation & Notes
Note on Machamp: Base Set 1st Edition Machamp was not pack-inserted; it came in the 1999 2-Player Starter Decks with a 1st-Edition stamp. Because it was a deck-exclusive card, its availability pattern differs from the 15 pack-pulled holos.
Rare-slot mapping
Method & Sources
This estimator combines:
- Δ Global cards Mar ’99→Mar ’00 (~764M → ~4.255B) as the production window.
- An assumed WotC (non-JP) share of that window, then a set share within WotC (Base/Jungle/Fossil).
- Edition share for the chosen set (1st/Shadowless/Unlimited) — defaults below, editable in the calculator:
- Base: 1st Ed 5% (very small launch run), Shadowless 15% (transitional), Unlimited 80% (bulk of Base ’99–’00).
- Jungle: 1st Ed 10%, Unlimited 90%.
- Fossil: 1st Ed 10%, Unlimited 90%.
- Pack collation: 11 cards/pack; rare slot is a holo about 1 in 3 packs (~12 holos/box); 3 uncommons; 7 commons (Base averages ~1 basic energy).
- Attrition/keeping rate: defaults to 30% survivors in PSA-7+ collectible condition.
Sources (high-level): Nintendo FY1999–FY2000 communications (cumulative card totals); EliteFourum community print-run estimation threads (2018); WotC-era pack composition guides and box mapping data. These provide context for the window size and pack odds; exact print counts were never published.